CANDYMAN PICKS

The name for this column was inspired by brothers in my fraternity who called me the “Candy Man” due to how much candy I not only ate but would hand out like it was Halloween 24/7. The nickname stuck and here we are. 

Twitter: @CandyPicks

Author’s note: All statistics and information come from OddsShark, ESPN, Sports Reference and ActionNetwork

Free Pick: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Penn State Nittany Lions – Feb. 18, 2020, 6:30 p.m. ET

CandyMan Pick: Penn State Nittany Lions -5.5 (LOSER)

This game was going to be a battle from the start because the Big Ten is a tough conference this year. Penn State lost at home to Illinois 62-56. Penn State shot a horrific 21% from 3-point, which the team typically shoots on average 32.8%. The Fighting Illini shot 44.4% from the field, which led them to their 6-point win on the road.   

FADING:

There are few ways you can “fade,” which involves fading a handicapper, a team or the public. A basic definition for this term is to bet the other side every time. For example, I personally don’t like the Texas Longhorns and I will always fade this team. I will never bet in their favor.  

The “public” is what makes up all bets taken. When the experts say “fade the public,” they mean the average bettor doesn’t know anything and is just betting on the favorite to win, siding where the most bets are made. Some experts express on Twitter and on blogs that when around 70% of the public is on a team, you should fade them because you should ask what the other 30% know that I don’t know. Take a look at it sometime and see how it plays in your favor fading the public.  

MOVE THE LINE:

“Moving the line” is another way to outsmart the bookies when you still believe your team is going to win but it comes with a cost. When a bettor “moves the line,” they are choosing a different spread for a game instead of the spread given by the sportsbook. Say you want to bet $100 on a game: if the line on a Patriots game is -7.5 (-110), you can “buy” points to lessen the spread if you think your team can win but won’t cover that given spread by the end of the game. The sportsbook will give you different options but you can choose the option to change the line to -3.5 (-175), which is the spread you believe the team can cover. Doing this, you have a better chance for your chosen team, like the Patriots, to cover the spread because you don’t believe they can win by 7.5 points but can win by at least 3.5.    

FUTURES BET:

Have you ever been able to predict the future or wanted to? Well, now you can with a “futures bet.” This is a bet you can put money on to basically predict the future with potential great payouts but only if you are correct. For example, if you were to bet $100 on the Washington Nationals to win the World Series when the team was +2200, which they did, you would’ve won $2,200. This type of bet leads me into “CandyMan’s Pick.”

CandyMan Future Pick:

In futures betting, there are so many factors you have to take into consideration.  For my future pick, there is a video swirling on Twitter right now that is very interesting. The video shows Julian Edelman saying “He’s coming back, he’s coming back.” That man is Tom Brady. 

This leads me to my future pick that Tom Brady will not be returning to the Patriots for the 2020 season. In the video, in my opinion, it looks as if Brady says “He’s not” and others believe he is saying “This guy” and “You got it.” But to me, I don’t believe this is the case. Looking at the past few seasons, Brady hasn’t had his all-star Rob Gronkowski and a top-tier wide receiver besides Edelman. My best bet would be Brady either looks to move to the new and improved Vegas Raiders or potentially the Los Angeles Chargers. 

I am 23 years old who will be graduating from UNL this coming May. I am from Lincoln, Nebraska have been born and raised here but the goal is to get out and experience the world of sports and journalism.